Ghana Decides 2024: What happens if the election goes to a runoff?

A runoff election occurs when no presidential candidate secures the required majority of votes in the initial round. This process typically involves the top two candidates from the first round and ensures that the winner has a clear majority, often defined as more than 50% of valid votes cast.

Regulation 44(1) of the Public Elections Regulations, 2020 (C.I. 127) stipulates: “In a presidential election, the candidate who receives more than fifty percent of the total number of valid votes cast shall be declared elected as President.”

Historical Runoff Elections in Ghana

Ghana has experienced runoff elections twice—in 2000 and 2008—both involving the late John Evans Atta Mills.

2000 Elections

The presidential election held on 7 December 2000 featured a close contest between John Agyekum Kufuor (NPP) and John Evans Atta Mills (NDC).

First Round:

• Kufuor: 3,131,739 votes (48.40%)

• Mills: 2,895,575 votes (44.80%)

• Other candidates: Edward Mahama (2.50%), George Hagan (1.80%)

• Constituencies Won: Kufuor (106), Mills (90)

Since no candidate crossed the 50% 1 threshold, a second round was held on 28 December 2000.

Runoff Results:

• Kufuor: 3,631,263 votes (56.90%)

• Mills: 2,750,124 votes (43.10%)

• Constituencies Won: Kufuor (134), Mills (66)

2008 Elections

In another tightly contested election, the NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo faced off against the NDC’s John Evans Atta Mills.

First Round:

• Akufo-Addo: 4,204,073 votes (49.32%)

• Mills: 4,070,889 votes (47.76%)

• Papa Kwesi Nduom came third with 112,673 votes (1.32%).

• Constituencies Won: Akufo-Addo (109), Mills (121)

The runoff on 28 December 2008 saw Mills emerge as the winner.

Runoff Results:

• Mills: 4,527,909 votes (50.47%)

• Akufo-Addo: 4,443,654 votes (49.53%)

• Constituencies Won: Mills (131), Akufo-Addo (99)

Predictions for 2024

Recent surveys, such as one conducted by Dr Isaac Owusu, Director of Research at the Presidency, indicate the possibility of a runoff in the upcoming elections, with both Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and John Dramani Mahama projected to secure 46.3% each. Additionally, German Ambassador Daniel Krull has also suggested the likelihood of a second round.

Key Regulations for a Runoff

According to Regulation 44 of C.I. 127:

1. If no candidate secures over 50% of the votes, a runoff is held within 21 days, the law indicates:

(2) states: Where in a presidential election there are more than two candidates and none of the candidates obtains the percentage of votes specified in subregulation (1), the Commission shall conduct a second election within twenty-one days after the previous election.

2. The two candidates with the highest votes in the first round contest the runoff, the law stipulates:

(3) The candidates for a presidential election held under subregulation (2) shall be the two candidates who obtained the two highest number of votes at the previous election.

(4) Where in a presidential election three or more candidates obtain the two highest number of votes the candidates shall, subject to any withdrawals, be the candidates in the subsequent election and the same process shall be continued until a President is elected.

(5) A presidential candidate under subregulation (3) or (4) may, by writing and signed by the candidate, withdraw the candidature at any time before the election.

3. In the event of a tie in the runoff, another election will be held within 21 days, the law further states:

(6) If after a second presidential election the two candidates obtained an equal number of votes, despite any withdrawal, the Commission shall conduct an election within twenty-one days after the previous election and the two candidates shall be the only candidates and the same process shall, subject to any withdrawal, be continued until a President is elected.

If none of the 12 presidential candidates crosses the 50% 1 threshold on 7 December 2024, the Electoral Commission will organise a runoff on 28 December 2024, potentially influencing Christmas celebrations nationwide.

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