The search for a new social contract

Military coups d’état, which involve unconstitutional ascension to power by armed forces, have been on the rise over the past decade in West Africa. Between 2020 and 2022, Africa experienced six ‘successful’ military coups – of which two were ‘coups within coups’ – and three attempted coups. This represents an approximately 229% increase in coup incidence over the previous 20-year period, according to a recent report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The report is titled ‘Soldiers and citizens, military coups and the need for democratic renewal in Africa’.  

The report lamented the growing number of so-called ‘constitutional coups’, in which leaders revise constitutions to change term limits by allowing for third-, fourth- and even fifth-term mandates. La Cote d’Ivoire is a recent example of a constitutional coup, wherein President Alassane Quatara successfully changed the constitution to give himself unlimited tenure in office. In Guinea, Alpha Conde’s attempt at Constitutional revision triggered the military coup in 2020. Arguably, coups, almost by definition, undermine constitutional rule, entrench bad governance and create conditions that undermine human rights and civic freedom – including by encouraging future coups.

The above scenario is currently playing out at Burkina Faso, where there have been three attempted coups in 2023 alone. Opponents of President Ibrahima Traore, within and without, are desperately trying to disrupt any attempt he is making to wean his country from western control, especially France. Traore’s administration has been reaching out to people and purposefully implementing pro-poor policies that are putting power in the hands of ordinary people.

This is the new social contract Africa needs, not puppet presidents and parliaments that have become appendages of the west.  It is not surprising some western countries have slapped sanctions on Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali and Guinea to compel them to bow to their desires. The notion is that the west will never want African country to prove that it can do without them. Thus, the concensus is that France is sponsoring dissidents to destabilise Burkina Faso after Traore ousted another military government – which was deemed to be a French puppet regime.

New approach

The UNDP report suggests new thinking to tackle this “epidemic of coup d’états”, as articulated by UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The new thinking includes structural and institutional drivers which may lead to violent conflicts – a springboard for coups.

The data on coups and instability demonstrate a positive correlation between heightened coup risk and persistent insecurity, stagnant growth, exclusionary economic governance, multidimensional poverty, inequality, manipulation of constitutional term limits, limited youth and women’s participation, governance deficits and higher levels of military expenditure. The report asserts that when citizens have been disappointed with the delivery of democratically elected governments, they are more likely to support non-democratic styles of governance – including military rule.

Therefore, for states across Africa to build coup-resilience, deeper democracy, better governance and inclusive development, they must improve the quality of democracy and service delivery. Unfortunately, for some time most states in the region have used democracy as a façade and failed to promote inclusive governance. According to the UNDP, recent coups in Africa have been more common in countries with a high number of previous coups, and governments that are neither democratic nor authoritarian.

Social contracts

The notion is that a reenactment of the social contract between the state and its citizens is needed to assist coup-affected states in moving forward and help prevent future coups. To achieve this, governments should shift their focus to delivering social and basic services like water, health and education that directly enhance quality of life and opportunity for all segments of society. The assumption is that the initial popularity of a coup in Africa should serve as the warning call for governments to do better in demonstrating inclusive and principled governance. However, democratic governance – especially the winner takes all practice in Ghana and other countries – has rather deepened social divisions.

In Ghana, for instance, development policy is driven by party manifestoes that often, if not always, fail to address the collective needs of citizens. Political parties that assume power fail to continue projects of previous governments because those projects were not in their manifestoes. This leads to defunding several projects and targetted social interventions. This practice further alienates and marginalises diverse groups – who are losing confidence in democratic governance. In fact, Ghana currently lacks an inclusive national policy that would forecast a vision for the future.

National dialogue

This calls for national dialogue that helps people to hear and understand each other, and new frameworks for managing differences collectively. The UN Secretary-General’s recent Our Common Agenda report highlights key policy areas for transforming lives and building trust. These include universal social protection, health coverage, education, skills, decent work and housing, as well as universal access to the Internet by 2030 as a basic human right.

It is envisaged that limited inclusion or total exclusion could create a crisis of legitimacy for governments and governance institutions. For instance, since commencement of the Fourth Republic, recruitment into several state institutions – the armed forces, the police, immigration, Customs, etc. – has been riddled with nepotism, bribery and corruption. So widespread is the ethnic-based recruitment to security services, some tribes clearly dominate the leadership of those institutions.

This has been the source of tension and a potential source of political and social instability. The risks demand a multi-level reframing of the social contract that aims to promote inclusion and equity in distribution of the national cake. People must aspire for a better future no matter which political party or administration is in power. This is the gap that exists in Africa’s attempt at democracy, and explains why people will use any means – including ethnic-cleansing and violence – to ensure their party is in power.

That said, deepening democracy and rebuilding the social contract are long-term initiatives that must aim at promoting transparency and accountability. Key processes should be identified to alert Ghanaians that inclusive development has been made a priority of the state. This can include setting up complaint mechanisms and clear commitment to improving service delivery standards.

Role of regional bodies

Indubitably, regional and international partners – such as the AU as well as regional economic communities (RECs) like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – have played a key role in projecting democratic and constitutional order and responding to coups, and helping to prevent further instances. However, the recent threats by some ECOWAS states to use force in restoring democratic rule to Niger were imprudent. Perhaps what is good for one country may not be good for another. If democracy has served the purpose of Ghana, it may have been a hindrance to Niger – especially when France was siphoning the poor country’s natural resources with the connivance of a democratically elected government. This indicates that democracy does not offer all the answers to poor and vulnerable people’s needs. In many instances, democracy only serves the interests of ruling elites and their cronies.

What is required from Africa’s international partners is a clear demonstration of solidarity – not only by encouraging a deepening of Africa’s democratic process, but by genuinely helping Africa to industrialise and become less dependent on foreign imports of basic needs. In this regard, food security is very important to nurturing and deepening democracy.

In fact, democracy means little to someone who lives on next-to-nothing and cannot guarantee a decent future for his family under a so-called democracy. Every four years, all that the electorate hears are words of sophistry, double-speak and unfulfilled promises. Undoubtedly, failure to deliver promises of development and lack of a clear vision to combat poverty is the biggest security risk to Africa – especially in West Africa, which has again become a volatile region.

Improved governance

This calls for improved governance – not just electing leaders in free elections, but to help reset the social contract with citizens. On that score, the ongoing review of the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance – including clauses related to presidential term-limits, is encouraging but not a panacea for peace and inclusive development.

Furthermore, recent events underscore the necessity for the AU and ECOWAS to enhance their capacities in preventive diplomacy, rather than threats of force. Effective coordination between the AU and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) is critical for advancing normative coherence.  In addition, the AU and RECs’ capacity to provide technical support for constitutional review and amendment processes is also crucial, but not an end.  While there is need for regional and international actors to engage proactively with countries where presidents are nearing the end of their term-limits, significantly, there are cases in Asian countries like Malaysia, Singapore and Japan where long rulership became more beneficial. What’s important is a clear, long-term vision of inclusive development.

New world economic order

The future stability, peace and security of Africa lies in a new world economic order, where Africans will no longer be hewers of wood and drawers of water; where Africans have the will to take total control over their natural resources, as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have done. Africa needs to wean itself from reliance on aid and foreign loans, which have shackled its economies with unsustainable debts and excruciating interest rates that were designed to keep the continent in perpetual bondage. The AU leadership must stop pandering to the dictates of western interests and begin to speak with one voice in the collective interest of their people.

Reference

UNDP. 2023 ‘Soldiers and citizens military coups and the need for democratic renewal in Africa’.

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