Export concentration failing to create enough jobs despite record trade performance

By Joshua Worlasi AMLANU

Ghana’s record trade surplus and export growth are failing to generate broad-based employment gains, with policymakers, economists and exporters warning that the country’s trade structure remains concentrated in raw commodities and a small number of dominant firms.

At the joint World Bank–African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET)–ISSER seminar on ‘Rethinking Trade for Growth and Jobs in Ghana’, Trade, Agribusiness and Industry Minister, Elizabeth Ofosu-Adjare said Ghana posted its strongest external trade performance in history in 2025, but acknowledged that the current export model remains insufficient to drive long-term industrialisation and job creation.

“In 2025, Ghana recorded a trade surplus of US$13.6 billion, the strongest external trade performance in the country’s history,” the minister said. Gross international reserves climbed to a record US$13.8 billion, while the current account balance increased from US$1.5 billion to more than US$9 billion within a year. Export receipts reached US$31.11 billion, supported mainly by gold exports, which generated US$20.98 billion after more than doubling due to higher global prices, increased volumes and reforms linked to the Ghana Gold Board.

Non-traditional exports rose 30.7 percent to a record US$5 billion, while processed and semi-processed exports increased 52.78 percent to US$3.09 billion. Cocoa derivatives, including cocoa paste, butter and powder, remained the largest contributors within the processed exports segment.

However, the minister cautioned that the gains should not obscure deeper structural weaknesses in Ghana’s export profile. “Our export base remains heavily concentrated on raw commodities,” Ms. Ofosu-Adjare said. “Stability has been earned, and it forms the platform from which we now build. But a record surplus is a moment to be proud of, not a destination to settle in.”

A presentation by the World Bank at the seminar showed that Ghana’s merchandise export basket has become less diversified over the past decade, with gold, cocoa and oil continuing to dominate exports. Gold’s share of exports rose from 33 percent in 2013 to 38 percent in 2024, while the share of “other exports” fell from 32 percent to 26 percent.

The study also found that Ghana’s export sector is heavily concentrated among a few firms. The top 10 exporters account for 74 percent of exports, the highest concentration among comparator economies including Kenya, Vietnam, Côte d’Ivoire and South Africa. Researchers further noted that while about 40 percent of firms entering the export sector are new entrants, they contribute only two percent of export value, and only 10 percent survive beyond three years.

Goosie Tanoh, presidential advisor on the 24-hour economy programme, said Ghana’s export structure has changed little over decades despite successive policy interventions.

“The only difference between export mix in terms of products today is that oil has taken over timber,” Mr. Tanoh said. “Before it was timber, gold and cocoa. There’s no timber, so we have oil, gold and cocoa. And so the argument for diversification is very strong.”

According to the World Bank presentation, exports have also made only a limited contribution to employment growth in Ghana. Employment growth among exporting firms was negative between 2013 and 2023, while a one percent increase in exports generated only a 0.19 percent increase in employment, the lowest among peer economies studied.

Tanoh linked the weak employment outcomes to structural constraints across financing, infrastructure, logistics and industrial capacity. “If you have no finance, you’re not going to get very far in terms of diversifying your export base, diversifying your export destinations and also your product slate,” he said, noting that agriculture received about 5 percent of total credit while exports accounted for roughly 7 percent.

He added that Ghana’s employment elasticity of output has fallen from around 0.7 in 2000 to 0.2 in 2024, reflecting weaker job creation relative to economic growth.

The World Bank study identified high non-tariff measures, weak logistics performance and structural production constraints as major barriers limiting Ghana’s trade competitiveness. Ghana ranked 97th globally on the Logistics Performance Index, reflecting customs delays, multiple inspections, licensing bottlenecks and high transaction costs.

The report also showed that 93 percent of Ghana’s exports are affected by at least one non-tariff measure, the highest incidence among peer economies reviewed. Technical barriers to trade and sanitary and phytosanitary measures were identified as the most common export constraints.

Ofosu-Adjare said the government’s strategy under President John Dramani Mahama is to move Ghana away from exporting raw materials toward an industrial and export-led growth model anchored on value addition. “The old model of exporting raw materials while importing finished goods is one Ghana can no longer accept,” she said.

The government has set a target to process at least 50 percent of cocoa domestically and has installed cocoa grinding capacity exceeding 500,000 metric tonnes. Authorities are also pursuing domestic gold refining and policies to increase local industrial input supply through the Feed the Industry Programme. Beyond traditional commodities, policymakers and industry players identified digital services exports as a growing opportunity for formal employment and foreign exchange generation.

David Gowu, Chief Executive Officer of the Business Outsourcing Services Association Ghana, said Ghana’s technology talent pool, political stability and English-language advantage position the country to become a regional outsourcing hub.

World Bank data presented at the seminar showed Ghana’s services exports have grown from roughly US$3 billion to US$9 billion, while global digital services trade is expanding faster than manufactured goods exports.  The presentation further noted that digital services generate a larger share of skilled and formal jobs than manufacturing and other sectors.

Mr. Guwo said international outsourcing firms already operating in Ghana have employed more than 2,500 young people, while the broader industry currently supports about 6,000 jobs.

He said Ghana produces more than 138,000 university graduates annually and has a talent pool exceeding 800,000 people, but regulatory barriers, high real estate costs and weak international promotion continue to constrain expansion. “Our strategy and our target is that in the next five years, that formal economy should be able to employ over 100,000 of these young people,” he said.

The World Bank concluded that Ghana could unlock stronger trade-led growth by reducing non-tariff barriers, improving logistics systems, strengthening quality certification frameworks and addressing sector-specific production constraints.

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