Research: NPP delegates prefer Dr. Bawumia to Alan Kyeremanten as flagbearer

A latest research by Outcomes International Ghana and Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives on the flagbearership race of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) has Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia ahead.

According to research, delegates of the governing party are likely to elect the Vice President as the flagbearer of the party in the 2024 elections ahead of Alan Kojo Kyeremanten.

The research conducted in all 16 regions of Ghana used an estimated 197,000 NPP polling station executives (PSEs) as the target population.

“The most preferred candidate for the NPP’s flagbearer position among PSEs is Dr Mahamudu Bawumia leading in all 16 regions as shown in figure 1 (below). The closest contenders to Dr Bawumia are Alan Kyerematen and Kennedy Agyapong respectively. It is worth noting that some PSEs (12.3%) indicated they have not yet decided on whom to vote for, but that does not significantly change the outcome,” the researchers said in their final report.

“The study was done in all 16 regions of the country using an estimated 197,000 NPP polling station executives (PSEs) as the target population. PSEs form the most important constituency as they make up more than 90% of the total delegates who will elect the NPP presidential candidate. Participants were selected using multistage probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) with implicit stratification. Subsamples were taken in three steps: the constituencies in a region were the primary sampling units (PSUs), the electoral areas in the selected constituencies were the second-stage sampling units, and the NPP Polling Station Executives were the final sampling units.”

“Data was obtained mainly through computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) technology between 15th November 2022 and 15th December 2022. Based on 95% confidence level and 2% margin of error a sample size of 6000 PSEs was used. However, 5641 PSEs were successfully interviewed (response rate of 94%) from all 96 constituencies. Greater Accra region had the highest number of PSEs interviewed with 1142 PSEs followed by the Ashanti region with 869 PSEs corresponding to 20.2% and 15.4% respectively. More than half of PSE’s who participated in the survey were Akan (54% [n=3056 PSEs]), and 46% (n=2585 PSEs) were non-Akan. In terms of religious distribution, 78% of the PSEs were Christian whilst 20.6% were Muslim.”

“The most preferred candidate for the NPP’s flagbearer position among PSEs is Dr Mahamudu Bawumia leading in all 16 regions as shown in figure 1. The closest contenders to Dr Bawumia are Mr Alan Kyeremanten and Mr Kennedy Agyapong respectively. It is worth noting that some PSEs (12.3%) indicated they have not yet decided on whom to vote for, but that does not significantly change the outcome.”

The NPP is expected to choose its flagbearer this year and candidates like Alan Kyeremanten, Kwabena Agyapong, Dr. Afriyie Akot, Kennedy Agyapong, Joe Ghartey and a few others have announced their candidacy.

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