3 key voting blocs that will shape 2024 elections in Ghana

This year, 50 countries are expected to hold elections. According to the Center for American Progress, a US policy institute, more than two billion voters worldwide will participate in these elections.

In Africa, 17 countries – including South Africa, Mali, Tunisia, and Ghana – will be electing new leaders too. Ghana has long been celebrated for its peaceful and democratic electoral history, characterised by seamless transitions of power since the Fourth Republic kickstarted. This track record has firmly established Ghana as a beacon of democracy within the African continent, with a commitment to multi-party representation during elections.

The governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) holds a significant position as a center-right and liberal-conservative political force in Ghana. Following Ghana’s transition to democracy in 1992, the NPP has stood as one of the two dominant parties in the country’s politics, with its main rival being the center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC). Both parties have actively governed the country for 16 years apiece and their performances often sharply divide opinion among citizens.

We live in a country where we have witnessed power alternation and this has led to situations where party members have blamed each other for not doing better than the other. This observation underscores the complex interplay and perceptions within Ghana’s political landscape.

This blog aims to enlighten the voting populace, political parties, stakeholders, and all parties involved on the three blocs that will shape this year’s election, whether positively or negatively (based on where you stand).

Presidential Candidates from Both Parties

The NPP has chosen vice-president Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as its presidential candidate for this year’s election. The party has also since announced Dr. Mathew Opoku Prempeh as Dr. Bawumia’s running mate.

On the side of the opposition, former president John Dramani Mahama emerged as the presidential candidate of the NDC. He then retained Professor Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang as his running mate for the 2024 presidential election. This was after a National Executive Committee meeting held on Thursday, March 4, 2024, in Accra. Both running mates are former Education Ministers and will be bringing to bear their expertise to support their respective party tickets. Do these running mates have any influence on their presidential candidates?

Understanding the Voting Terrain

Citizens tend to vote for one political party or the other based on the policies and messages they sell during their campaigns and manifesto reading. For the NPP, their 2016 manifesto touched on some key areas like the economy, trade and industry, education – where the Free Senior High School (Free SHS) Policy comes into play – and Health, where the national health insurance scheme was the song on the lips, and infrastructure across all sectors. The NDC also tailored its message to putting people first, building a strong and resilient economy, providing reliable infrastructure, and improving accountability in governance.

In the end, the opposition NPP, led by Nana Akufo-Addo, secured victory in the 2016 presidential election, winning 53.9% of the total votes in the first round, unseating the incumbent president John Dramani Mahama of the NDC. Mahama received only 44.7% of the total valid votes.

In Parliament, the NPP won a majority of 169 seats while the NDC garnered 106, as per the Electoral Commission of Ghana.

It is important to note that these political parties have their strongholds, which we can term their “world bank”. While the NDC’s stronghold is the Volta Region, that of the NPP is the Ashanti Region.

In 2020, the NDC obtained its highest percentage of votes (84.8%) from the Volta Region, while the NPP won its highest vote percentage (71%) from the Ashanti Region.

Over time, these two aforementioned regions have been the political strongholds of the two parties. Also, during the 2020 elections, around 6.79 million votes were accumulated by the NPP, while approximately 6.17 million votes went to the NDC. These intriguing statistics make it challenging to predict who will emerge as the people’s choice in this year’s election.

The next part of the article dives into three fascinating groups of people in the country who might seem like underdogs but have the power to sway the election results. Keep an eye on them!

Three Key Blocs That Will Influence the Upcoming December Polls

Today, Ghana is among the African countries with the highest cost of living. Citizens have expressed their frustration on how the economy is draining every facet of their lives.

From the pervasive issue of youth unemployment to the rapid depreciation of the cedi against the US dollar and escalating government debt; from deteriorating roads and inadequate infrastructure to the controversial sale of state-owned properties; from rampant corruption and widespread looting to the unjust distribution of wealth, many citizens are seeking answers. Additionally, the deteriorating state of our water bodies due to galamsey activities adds to the urgent need for solutions.

But what will people be voting against, who will be voting and who will be observing? Below are three blocs.

The first group of people is the Floating Voters. The floating voter hypothesis originated from Lazarsfeld, Berelson, and Gaudet’s (1944) observation that Erie County citizens who “wavered” during the 1940 campaign were uniquely uninformed about politics.

In its original form, the floating voter hypothesis bears on intra-election change. Based on their observation that the citizens who were most susceptible to persuasion during election campaigns were the least informed members of the electorate, they inferred that the citizens who contributed to intersection change in the two-party vote for president were the same poorly informed citizens.

These types of voters have not yet decided which way to vote in an election, or they do not consistently vote for the same political party. Such people are difficult to predict as they make last-minute decisions to vote.

They can be compared to “laggards” as described in advertising. These individuals do not have strong party affiliations, and political parties need to pay attention to them and persuade them to support their candidates.

In Ghana, these undecided voters have significantly influenced the outcomes of presidential elections in the past. For example, in the 2000 elections, the run-off between Prof. John Evans Atta Mills and John Agyekum Kufour recorded a substantial 14.8% of floating votes to Kufuor’s total votes. Similarly, in the 2008 election run-off, less than 40,000 floating votes were cast for Prof. Mills, which helped him defeat Akufo-Addo.

Then we move on to the next group, the New Voters. Just as their name suggests, they will be voting for the first time. Most of the “Gen Zs” can be classified as new voters. The age composition of Ghana’s 31 million people, based on 2021 census data, indicates that about 35% are children (0-14 years), 38% are young people (15-35 years), and about 4% are in the older population (65 ), depicting that young people form a majority of the population.

The Electoral Commission of Ghana undertook a limited voter registration exercise from May 7 to 29, 2024. At the end of the 23-day exercise, the EC captured a total of 778,447 voters onto the register, comprising 408,332 females, representing 52.45 percent, and 370,115 males, representing 47.55 percent, according to graphic.com.gh. These numbers are also enough to cause a surprise as to who leads the nation in the next four years. These new voters are going to vote based on the things they have experienced in the last four years. A recent study by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement stated that 57% of youth, aged 18 to 34, said they were “extremely likely” to vote in 2024, and another 15% said they were “fairly likely” to cast a ballot in the election.

The involvement of young people in politics can be seen in their increasing engagement on social media, especially on X (formerly Twitter), where an online protest dubbed “Fix the Country” grew into one of the largest street protests Ghana has ever witnessed last year. Together with the youngest Millennials, young people aged between 18 and 34 are poised to be a potential force in the next presidential election. A considerable portion of the electorate consisting of first-time voters is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the upcoming election. These voters will be driven by their personal experiences, including the struggles of unemployment, the impact of the depreciating cedi, the challenges within the education system, and the substantial effects of the soaring cost of living. These pressing issues will likely weigh heavily on their voting decisions.

The last group to consider is the Party Faithful. The Cambridge Dictionary describes such individuals as long-time loyal members or supporters of a particular party. They make up the majority of the voting population and are represented in various areas based on factors such as tribe, location, history, and allegiance. Ethnicity is pervasive in every society and is therefore crucial to every political marketing approach, even though to a lesser extent in more diverse environments.

This group appears to be unwavering in their loyalty to their party, often disregarding the actual performance of a candidate and choosing to maintain their allegiance. It’s been noted that even when a relatively unknown candidate is affiliated with their party, these individuals continue to show unwavering support. Their dedication to the party or individual seems to take precedence over other considerations, even if their chosen party or candidate is not performing well. It can be particularly challenging to garner support from this group if you belong to an opposing party.

Conclusion

The upcoming 2024 election is set to be a captivating and unpredictable chapter in our nation’s political history. Both major political parties are confident in their ability to secure victory. One party is strategically harnessing the narrative of the current administration’s achievements to rally support, while the other is emphasizing its wealth of experience and past successes in governance to sway voters.

But here’s the fascinating twist: every participant, from the political parties to stakeholders, the electorate, and beyond, holds the power to shape the outcome of these elections. The undecided voters, often referred to as floating voters, will wield significant influence as last-minute decision-makers. Additionally, the rise of new voters, particularly “Gen Zs,” will assert their influence, while steadfast party loyalists will continue to champion their long-standing favorites. With these dynamic and multifaceted elements at play, the 2024 elections promise to be an absorbing and enthralling tale that demands our close attention.

Despite the campaign tactics, the pivotal and looming question is: which candidate will ultimately earn the trust and support of the people to lead the nation? Only December 7 will tell.

By: Benedicta Naa Odarkor Ablateye

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