NPP TO WIN POLLS … Legon research say Nana will be next President of Ghana

By Pascal KafuAbotsi The results of this year’s elections will see President John Dramani Mahama bid a touching goodbye to Flagstaff House, research conducted by the Political Science Department of the University of Ghana, Legon, has established. Led by Dr. Isaac Owusu-Mensah, a Lecturer at the department, the survey, which was carried out in the […]

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By Pascal KafuAbotsi
The results of this year’s elections will see President John Dramani Mahama bid a touching goodbye to Flagstaff House, research conducted by the Political Science Department of the University of Ghana, Legon, has established.
Led by Dr. Isaac Owusu-Mensah, a Lecturer at the department, the survey, which was carried out in the swing regions of Greater Accra, Brong Ahafo, Central and Western, placed the presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, ahead of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer.
In the 2012 elections, the NDC won convincingly, all four regions. However, Dr. Owusu-Mensah told the press in Accra yesterday, that this year, in the Greater Accra Region, the NPP is tipped to lead with 55.2% as against President Mahama’s 32.8%, while 57.2% for Nana Addo and 33.4% for President Mahama is the case in the Central Region.
The survey also showed that President John Mahama will lead with 55.8% in the Northern Region, while Nana Addo will shoot up his 2012 performance to 38.8%.
The Western Region will also witness 52.2% for the NPP, and a paltry 27.5% for the NDC, whereas in the Brong Ahafo Region, the NPP and NDC will secure 44.5% and 44.0% respectively.
The 2,400 respondents, who participated in the process, were drawn mainly from 24 constituencies marked as the strongholds of the ruling NDC.
In the Greater Accra Region, for example, Krowor, Ledzokuku, Korle Klottey and Madina were considered.
Techiman North, Nkoranza North, Nkoranza South and Wenchi were the chosen constituencies in the Brong Ahafo Region, while the focus was on Shama, Jomoro, Amenfi East and Sefwi Bekwai in the Western Region.
In the Central Region, Efutu, Awutu Senya West, Gomoa East, Cape Coast North, Twifo-Hemang-Lower Denkyira, Asikuma-Odobeng-Brakwa and Agona West were the areas under consideration.
With support from Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, the team focused on the four regions, because they are on record to have alternated power between the NPP and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the 2000 and 2008 elections.
The zeal to find out if that logic was anything to go by, informed the decision of the researchers to find out people’s voting patterns this year, as well as the issues and perspectives that would influence their choices.
It was confirmed that while the campaign messages of the NPP resonated well with the respondents in the chosen areas – for example ‘One District, One Factory’; ‘One Constituency, One Million Dollars’ and ‘One Village, One Dam’ among others, the opposite was the case for the NDC.
The DKM Micro Finance issue, Dr. Owusu-Mensah pointed out, will be the main factor the people of the Brong Ahafo Region would consider in casting their votes.
He recalled the people telling the research team that Mrs. Lordina Mahama, First Lady of the country, had some relationship with the liquidated company, which meant that she had knowledge of the treatment meted out to them.
For this reason, they would vote against the NDC. What even made the matter worse, the Lecturer said, was that they continued to see her image with that of the President.
Other issues which would inform the people’s decision-making would be the honesty of the candidate.
Here, 29% expressed this concern, whereas 27% and 1% will look out for somebody who cares and solves problems for people, and a President with crisis management skills, respectively.
“51% responded in the affirmative that Dum-so is an issue in the election, 43% answered that it is not an issue, while 5.2% did not know if it is an issue in the elections,” Dr. Owusu-Mensah indicated.
35.5% of the respondents would base their decision on the economy and provision of jobs; 25.9% on education; 15.5% on the issue of health care, and 6.5% on the perception of corruption.
Electricity supply will constitute 1.7%; transport services, 3.8%, and social security 1.8%.
0.8% will also take the imposition of taxes into account.
The study concludes that the “NPP has a better chance of winning the December elections than NDC, because NDC must win the Greater Accra, Central and with Brong-Ahafo or Western regions, which is possible, but with minimal probability.
“NPP strength in Northern Volta has been bolstered with changing new dynamics in the region. The NPP has also gained some hold in some constituencies in the Upper West Region, such as Wa East and Lambussie-Karni,” it added.
Again, “NPP has managed to diffuse the weight of the NDC in Asawase and New Edubiase, which will reduce the regional tally of the NDC in Ashanti, therefore, the 30% projection is questionable,” the paper stated.
And if the NPP is able to mobilise the core supporters to cast their votes, the research emphasised, the party has chances of winning in the first round, “but if NDC and PPP are capable of making some gains nationally, this will force the elections into the second round, but NPP will still be in the lead in [the] first round.”

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