Coronavirus: Experts once said 20,000 deaths was a ‘good outcome’ – so where is the UK headed now?

More than 20,000 people have now died in UK hospitals after testing positive for coronavirus – a level that had previously been earmarked as a significant milestone by science and medical chiefs.

A “good outcome”

On 17 March, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said keeping the number of UK deaths below 20,000 would be a “good result” from the COVID-19 pandemic.

“If we can get this down to 20,000 and below, that is a good outcome in terms of where we would hope to get to with this outbreak,” he told a committee of MPs.

Professor Stephen Powis, the medical director of NHS England, later repeated the assertion that keeping below 20,000 deaths would be a “good outcome” at one of the first daily Downing Street briefings.

Sir Patrick and Prof Powis’ comments came to either side of the UK entering its coronavirus lockdown, which was at least in part prompted by modeling from a team at London’s Imperial College.

The university’s team predicted that, without the stringent social distancing measures now in place to “suppress” the spread of COVID-19, the UK could have been on course for around 250,000 deaths.

So, with the UK still in lockdown, but having passed the level that the government and NHS England previously considered a “good result” – how many deaths could there be?

The UK probably passed 20,000 deaths a long time ago

In reality, the UK probably passed the 20,000 deaths mark a long time ago.

The daily death figures released by the Department for Health and Social care only report the deaths of patients with coronavirus in UK hospitals.

By contrast, figures now released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal a wider picture of the impact of COVID-19.

The ONS figures include deaths outside hospitals, such as in care homes or at home, where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate.

According to these figures, of all deaths registered by 10 April, 10,350 mentioned coronavirus on the death certificate.

They also show that the total current number of deaths in 2020 is 184,950, which is 10,232 more than the five-year average.

In the week up to 10 April, the ONS said the number of deaths was 18,526, which was the highest weekly total since the first week of 2000 – a year when the UK suffered a major flu outbreak.

Of those deaths registered in the week to 10 April, 6,213 (33%) mentioned coronavirus, which was almost double the number from the week before.

The ONS figures also showed that of deaths between the week starting on 9 March, when the first COVID-19 deaths were registered, and 10 April, the number of deaths in care homes has doubled, with a 72% increase in-hospital deaths and a 51% increase in deaths in private homes.

It has been suggested an overall rise in the number of deaths in 2020, compared to previous years, may also reveal the UK lockdown is having an indirect impact on health.

Indeed, the government has said one of its key considerations when reviewing the lockdown measures is the impact on people’s long-term health from the socio-economic effects of the lockdown, as well as the effect of the continued postponement of other healthcare.

Up to 66,000 deaths?

Others have tried to make their own estimations of how many deaths there might be in the UK due to coronavirus.

Professor Anthony Costello of University College London’s Institute for Global Health has previously suggested the UK “could see 40,000 deaths” in the current wave of coronavirus cases.

However, he also warned the country was going to face more waves of infections.

The Financial Times, according to their analysis of ONS figures, have said the coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, based at the University of Washington in the US, once predicted deaths from COVID-19 in the UK would be the highest in Europe at 66,000.

However, they later revised down their forecast to 37,494 deaths, based on new data.

Will the UK be the worst affected in Europe?

According to figures collated by Johns Hopkins University in the US, the UK is the fourth-worst affected country in Europe in terms of deaths, behind Italy, Spain, and France.

The government has previously said the UK is further behind other European countries in terms of the progress of the coronavirus outbreak.

And this means, whether the UK is ultimately the worst affected country in Europe will depend upon the RO value in the coming weeks.

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