Africa 2025: Broader Strategic Perspectives

By Professor Maurice OKOLI

African continent to a very great degree is rich in natural resources encompassing a wide range of both renewable and non-renewable assets. Africa is home to some 30 percent of the world minerals, eight percent of the world natural gas and 12 percent of the world oil reserves.

The continent has 40 percent of the world’s gold and up to 90 percent of its chromium and platinum. The largest reserves of cobalt, diamond and uranium in the world are in Africa. It holds 65 percent of the world’s arable land and ten percent of the planet internal renewable fresh water source.

For decades, Africa with its vast untapped natural resources has been the world’s geographical region of attention and priority, attracting various global players from all over the world for economic and political engagement.

In a quick assessment, China has emerged as the most powerful player with its geopolitical clout and leadership in fostering multifaceted economic growth. These can be interpreted differently and from different perspectives, and its unequivocal implications are also varied in terms of the current Africa’s transformations and future directions.

For Africa’s future pathway, the year 2025 could perhaps be set as another distinctive new chapter of a strategic qualitative development and push for a significant growth.

The conditions for this expected growth could be linked to the fact that continental organization African Union will install a new leadership in February 2025, South Africa chairs the G20, Commonwealth Secretariat and World Trade Organization are headed by two African women, a Ghanaian and a Nigerian citizens.

These resounding organizational features, at least, makes 2025 an African year to facilitate investment and economic development opportunities, and through wide multilateral collaborations, both external investors and stakeholders, for remarkable changes.

(i) Kenya’s AUC leadership:

As well-known, four candidates have slated for the February 2025 polls. Raila Odinga will face off with Djibouti’s Mohamoud Youssouf, Anil Gayan (Mauritius) and Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar) for the African Union Commission chairmanship in the race to succeed the outgoing chairman Moussa Faki of Chad.

The latest development monitored for this article explicitly showed that Kenya’s candidate for the Africa Union Commission chairmanship Raila Odinga, highlighted his priorities and strategies to include enhancing intra-African trade by establishing a common market, implement a broader economic transformation, strengthening regional integration and cooperation, and peace and security.

Undoubtedly, the African Union (AU) is a critical institution for promoting unity, peace, and development across the continent. However, there is a growing consensus that it requires reforms to increase its effectiveness, efficiency, and relevance in addressing Africa’s challenges. Here are reasons why reforms are necessary:

1. Structural and Institutional Weaknesses: The AU has been criticized for its slow decision-making processes and lack of streamlined operations. The relationship between the AU and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) is often unclear, leading to duplication of efforts and fragmented initiatives.
2. Financial Dependence: Over 60% of the AU’s budget comes from external donors, raising concerns about the organization’s independence and ability to prioritize African-led solutions. Worse, many member states have unsuccessfully been in position to meet promptly their financial obligations, hindering the AU’s ability to execute its programs effectively. This most often reflected on the limited success in peacekeeping: Despite efforts, the AU has struggled to resolve protracted conflicts in regions like the Sahel, Somalia, and the Great Lakes.
3. Geopolitical and Global Challenges: Adapting to a changing world, with shifts in global power dynamics, the AU must reform to ensure Africa’s interests are adequately represented on the global stage.
4. Lack of Accountability and Governance: There have been concerns over deep-seated corruption. Internal mismanagement and corruption have undermined the credibility of the AU. There is a need for stronger accountability mechanisms to ensure compliance with AU protocols and charters by member states.

Raila Odinga’s tremendous political experience and pan-African vision unreservedly underscored the unwavering commitment for reforms as potential steps to advance the basic objectives of uplifting the economic status of the continent under the banner “Africa We Want” incorporated into the Agenda 2063.

Kagame Report (2017): Spearheaded by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, this initiative proposed actionable reforms to address structural inefficiencies and financial sustainability. Efforts to reduce the number of AU departments and improve coordination among stakeholders. Reforming the African Union is essential for building a stronger, more unified Africa capable of addressing its internal challenges and asserting its position on the global stage.

As frequently reiterated, Africa with its huge human and natural resources can take its rightful position in the current 21st century in the world. But for the realization of this, Africa still have to coordinate with Commonwealth Secretariat, WTO, G20 and BRICS in promoting industrialization, supporting manufacturing, and enhancing innovation through investments in education, technology, healthcare, affordable energy and skills development. These invariantly fall within the Africa’s Agenda 2063.

(ii) South Africa’s G20 chairmanship: South Africa is now the biggest economy in Africa, with a GDP of $373 billion in 2024. (WorldStatistics) In addition to its economic prominence in Africa, South Africa is a staunch member of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), an informal association joined by Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and United Arab Emirates.

On one hand, it is important to mention here the role of South Africa as it takes the chairmanship the Group of 20 (G20) in 2025. It is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 sovereign countries, the European Union (EU), and the African Union (AU). In 2023, during its summit, the African Union joined as its 21st member and was officially represented at the 2024 G20 summit in Brazil.

On the other hand, since its inception, the recurring themes covered by G20 summit participants have related in priority to global economic growth, international trade and financial market regulation – these are issues affecting Africa.

South Africa could direct G20’s win-win influence in streamlining the beneficial economic sphere considered as key to Africa’s development and which would unprecedentedly impact on aspects of life of estimated 1.4 billion people in the 21st century.

With South Africa at the helm of G20 affairs, it is therefore paramount to seriously “re-evaluate” both the group and individual members relations with Africa. South Africa has a unique opportunity to influence the global agenda, especially in addressing the priorities of developing nations. Here are key actions South Africa should undertake:

1. Advocate for African and Global South Priorities

Debt Relief and Financing: Push for frameworks that support debt restructuring and sustainable financing for developing nations, ensuring equitable access to funds for recovery and development.

Climate Justice: Emphasize the need for climate financing and support for adaptation, particularly for African nations facing severe climate vulnerabilities.

2. Enhance Multilateralism

Strengthen international cooperation on trade, technology transfer, and global health, highlighting Africa’s role in the global economy.

Support reforms in global governance institutions, such as the IMF and World Bank, to give emerging economies more say in decision-making.

3. Promote Inclusive Growth

Champion policies to address inequality, including initiatives to improve education, health, and digital inclusion across member states.

Focus on creating partnerships to promote job creation, particularly in green and digital economies.

4. Strengthen Food and Energy Security

Address disruptions in global supply chains exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts. Advocate for sustainable agricultural practices and support energy transition strategies that align with Africa’s development needs.

5. Foster Trade and Investment Opportunities

Use the G20 platform to attract investments in Africa, highlighting the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a mechanism for growth.

Advocate for fair trade practices that enable African products to access global markets without undue barriers.

If South Africa effectively prioritizes these actions, it could strengthen Africa’s influence in global decision-making and drive sustainable development and reduce inequality. The position of South Africa and the African continent are as central players in solving global challenges.

In a nutshell, South Africa’s leadership in the G20 offers an opportunity to align the group’s actions with Africa’s development aspirations while fostering global solidarity in an era of increasing geopolitical complexity.

(iii) Ghana’s directorship of Commonwealth Secretariat: Late October 2024, the Commonwealth of Nations marked yet another milestone by the apointment of Ghana’s Foreign Minister and Regional Integration, Shirley AyorkorBotchwey, as the next Secretary-General. For West Africans, her appointment was a prestigious testament, first to women’s empowerment and second, to resilience and a reminder that Africa’s voice matters on the world stage.

Despite these two reasons, however, it further presented a step forward in broadening African representation at the helm of international organizations and most importantly the extent this could impact on the development of the multifaceted relations with the continent. The Commonwealth has played various roles and continues to attach indivisible value in fostering partnerships with various African countries.

By this relations, Africa’s economy may benefit from renewed diverse set of attention to sustainable development and job creation opportunities. It could also see increased investment and trade partnerships among its 56 member nations. Without mincing words, the Commonwealth has shown, in various ways, commitment to unity, peace, and sustainable progress in Africa.

Africa’s relationship with the Commonwealth presents several opportunities, particularly in the context of current geopolitical shifts. For instance, access to markets: The Commonwealth provides a platform for enhancing intra-Commonwealth trade, which is projected to reach $1 trillion annually. Africa can leverage this to diversify trade partners amid shifting global alliances.

The next question relates to existing investment opportunities: the Commonwealth programs promote investment, particularly in sustainable industries, offering African countries opportunities to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in green and digital economies.

As the Secretary-General, Shirley AyorkorBotchwey has the posibility of negotiating for initiatives like the Commonwealth scholarships and fellowships promote education and capacity building, helping African nations develop skilled workforces. And also for strengthening cultural programs and exchanges foster mutual understanding and cooperation.

With increasing competition between global powers, Africa can use the Commonwealth to diversify alliances, reducing over-reliance on single blocs like China or the West. By actively engaging with the Commonwealth, Africa can harness these opportunities to navigate the complexities of global power dynamics while fostering development and regional stability.

(iv) Nigeria pedaling World Trade Organization: Today’s transformations and reforms at the World Trade Organization has practical evidence to support the newly created single borderless market in Africa.

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) being the flagship of the African Union (AU) is intended to consolidate the intra-African trade to an expected tune of $2.7 trillion and the diverse spheres of the continental economy. In its 2024 report, the UNECA estimated that by 2045 intra-African trade will increase by nearly 35% compared to a situation without the AfCFTA.

This is one signal pointing to the fact that WTO has to strike a groundbreaking impactful collaboration with AfCFTA, but a lot would depend on how critical and important Africa’s partnership with external players are designed and pursued, uttermost offering Africa better opportunities for noticeable economic, socio-cultural and political growth.

In practical reality, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and WTO top-management has to show seriousness in changing to result-oriented partnerships especially in its historic trade cooperation these decades with Africa.

Both the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aim to reduce barriers to trade, such as tariffs and non-tariff barriers, fostering economic integration and market access.

The WTO provides a global framework for trade regulations, while AfCFTA operates within a similar rule-based framework at the continental level, ensuring predictability and transparency.Both organizations focus on enhancing the trade capacity of member states.

The WTO supports developing nations with trade-related technical assistance, while AfCFTA includes initiatives to boost the trade readiness of African countries.

The WTO and AfCFTA could work together to harmonize regional trade rules with global trade agreements, ensuring coherence between Africa’s trade policies and international standards.

In summary, the WTO and AfCFTA share common goals in promoting fair and inclusive trade practices, and collaboration between the two can significantly enhance the global trade integration of African countries.

(v) Conclusion – The Year of Africa: Achievable and strategic recommendations for 2025:

Judging from the discussion, the African Union and individual African States, therefore in 2025, have to consider the absolute necessity to outlook for strategic collaboration with external partners and corporate shareholders within the framework of the African Union’s Agenda 2063. The necessity for African leaders to prioritize  economic parameters and its related proactive measures that enhance practical support for both public and private-sector collaboration.

In furtherance to this, the necessity to draw a roadmap for businesses to achieve long-term sustainable growth, utilize the opportunities in the intra-African single market while simultaneously adapting to shifting global market demands. In addition, for African leaders, in order to claim the public nobility, instead of rattling anti-western rhetoric have to build and muster their own negotiation capacity to deal with developed countries.

In the subsequent years, reawaking the African Union and other Regional Economic Communities, and African leaders should arguably be the main priority, predictably as possible to play the economic development catch-up, in the Global South.

Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow and lecturer at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He serves as an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club.

As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult (at) gmail (dot) com.

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