Ghana Decides 2024: Five interesting polls predicting the next president

As Ghana’s 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections fast approach, the political atmosphere is electric, filled with vibrant rallies, campaign messages shaping public discussions, and catchy campaign songs that energise supporters.

With 12 days to December 7, the presidential election is shaping up as a pivotal contest between candidates of the two major political parties—the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the main opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).

However, the ten other presidential candidates are equally confident of breaking the political duopoly to win the race to Jubilee House. Notably, Alan Kojo Kyerematen, Founder of the Movement for Change, and Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force Movement are both poised to challenge the traditional two-party dominance.

As Ghanaians prepare to decide their next president, researchers have added to the political discourse. Who will win the race to Jubilee House for the next four years? Below are five key polls predicting Ghana’s next president:

Poll Predictions

1. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

The UK-based Economist Intelligence Unit, in its report titled “Africa Outlook 2024, Strong Growth Amid Heated Elections”, predicted that opposition candidate John Mahama will win.

Ghana is likely to experience a transfer of power from the ruling New Patriotic Party to the opposition National Democratic Congress, largely driven by declining living standards, limited job opportunities and poor public services.

2. Outcomes International

This research group’s survey, conducted between 15th August and 15th September 2024, forecasts a tight race, with Dr Mahamudu Bawumia leading in 11 out of 16 regions, while Mahama wins in five.

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia will win in 11 out of 16 regions whilst Mr. Mahama wins in 5 regions. The overall findings show a very close contest between Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (49.4%) and Mr. Mahama (45.1%).

It added:

However, 5.2% of the respondents were undecided while 0.3% of the respondents said they would vote for other candidates.

3. Fitch Solutions

In its September 19, 2024, country report, Fitch Solutions highlighted increased government spending but still forecasted a win for Mahama:

We expect the government to boost expenditure leading up to the December 2024 general election to enhance its chances of securing victory. We remain of the view that the opposition National Democratic Congress will win the election.

4. Global Info Analytics led by Mussa Dankwah

The Ghanaian-based firm’s final poll on November 18, 2024, predicted: “Mahama will be elected as Ghana’s next president with 51.9% of the vote. In second place is the NPP’s Dr. Bawumia with 40.5%, while independent presidential candidates Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen come in third and fourth with 4.7% and 2.1%, respectively.”

5. Professor Smart Sarpong

A recent survey by Professor Smart Sarpong from Kumasi Technical University projected a potential first-round victory:

As of 16 November 2024 (4 weeks to elections), NPP's Dr Mahamudu Bawumia was in a 49.1% lead, NDC's Mr John Mahama coming next with 45.8%, followed by Nana Kwame Bediako with 2.2%, and Mr John Allan Kyeremateng with 1.2%.

It further noted:

All other candidates put together obtained 1.7% of the votes. It is clear from this report that elections in 2024 can be won in the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory.

Conclusion

As research institutions predict different outcomes, the December 7 election promises to be closely contested. Meanwhile, Ghana’s Electoral Commission has pledged to ensure a free, fair, and transparent process that reflects the will of the people.

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