Would greenhouse gas emissions from Israel-Gaza conflict impact climate change in Africa?

On October 7, 2023, armed members of Hamas attacked Israel, killed some Israelis and took some 200 hostages. Israel has responded in ways some believe is disproportionate to the attacks from Hamas – further leading to an escalation in violence in the already troubled region, and an invasion of Gaza by Israeli soldiers.

Researchers have analysed the environmental impacts of the raging conflict. The study published on Social Science Research Network estimates that emissions from the first 60 days of the war were greater than the annual emissions of 20 individual countries and territories.

“If we include war infrastructure built by both Israel and Hamas, including the Hamas’ tunnel network and Israel’s protective fence or ‘Iron Wall,’ the total emissions increase to more than over 33 individual countries and territories,” the researchers wrote.

The impact of the war is huge. As of December 2023, the bombardment, the human costs of the conflict are reaching scales previously unseen in the region.

Citing the statistics, the researchers say the numbers are staggering; as of December 30, 2023, over 21,600 Palestinians and up to 1,200 Israeli deaths, 50 thousand injured, roughly 80 percent of Gaza’s population—1.8 million people—have been displaced. Roughly 110 hostages remain captive in Gaza and hundreds of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) soliders have been killed.

“Estimates place 36-45% of Gaza’s buildings — homes, schools, mosques, hospitals — as destroyed or damaged. According to the Bank of Israel, initial forecasts of the financial cost to Israel is expected to reach up to $50 billion, including rebuilding Gaza,” the study stated.

Linus Mofor, a Senior Environmental Affairs Officer – Energy, Infrastructure and Climate Change, African Climate Policy Centre, ECA however told Ghana Business News that it is important to note that climate change impacts at specific locations are not attributable to discrete emissions.

“So any increases in emissions from the Israel-Hamas war cannot be specifically linked to impact in specific places,” he said.

He further noted that “As global efforts to curb emissions continue to be lacklustre, Africa will continue to suffer the most as already experienced and demonstrated by our (AfDB, ECA, UNEP) analyses that African countries are already losing on average 5% of GDP per year, up to 15% in some cases, owing to climate change impacts.”

Dr Frederick Otu-Larbi, one of the authors of the study however told Ghana Business News that: “The emissions from the war will not have an immediate impact. However, the greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere will eventually lead to global warming which is projected to affect African countries and their people significantly.”

In the study, the scientists provided ‘snapshots’ of carbon emissions from the Israel-Gaza conflict across three distinct time horizons. First, they calculated limited direct emissions figures for the first 60 days of combat following Hamas’s dreadful attack on October 7.

To understand the immediate climate ramifications of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, they calculated Scope 1 ‘tailpipe emissions’ and some Scope 2 (manufacturing of bombs and rockets) of the hundreds of Israeli bombing raids (primarily conducted by F-16s), tanks and other vehicles, cargo flights,  and patrol flights by other aircraft, including F-35s, and the emissions of the estimated munitions used by Israel on Gaza.

“Within this same timeframe of 60 days, we also quantified the climate impacts of Qassam rockets sent into Israel by Hamas during the initial stages of the war.

In the second time horizon, we consider emissions from the construction of security-related concrete infrastructure in both Israel and Gaza over a 16-year period. This calculation stretches back to 2007 to gain insight into the climate impacts of an underappreciated facet of military emissions, the use of concrete in security infrastructure. We include built concrete infrastructure used by Hamas’ Gaza tunnel construction which was ramped up to circumvent the Egyptian-Israel blockade put in place in 2007. On the Israeli side, we include emissions for the ‘Iron’ or ‘Smart Wall’ separating Gaza from Israeli controlled territory- both above and below ground,” they said.

The scientists noted that the Israel-Gaza conflict, and its climate dimensions, were closely monitored at the recent UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (COP) 28 meetings in Dubai by delegates and civil society organisations.

Prompted by the hosts, the links between conflict and climate change were included on the UNFCCC agenda for the first time, they stated, and further noted that it is important to build on this post-COP momentum to highlight gaps in current military emissions reporting, while pushing for immediate cuts to military emissions as an economic sector where governments have direct authority to manage operations.

Citing the UN Environmental Programme’s most recent Emission Gap report, the scientists indicated that military emissions are ‘insufficiently accounted’ for by the UNFCCC, but even with incomplete data, researchers have found that militaries account for almost 5.5% of global emissions.

“Increased greenhouse gas emissions as is happening in this war makes it more difficult for the world and Africa to combat climate change. Increased greenhouse gas emissions also bring the world closer to the catastrophic impacts of climate change such as flooding, destruction of infrastructure, the spread of infectious diseases and heat-related health problems like heat strokes. These impacts will negatively affect individual productivity, as well as increase the cost of reconstructing infrastructure destroyed by climatic events,” Dr Otu-Larbi said.

Asked how the conflict could affect climate finance in Africa, Dr Out-Larbi said: “This could be seen in two ways. As more funds are allocated to war efforts, the developed nations like the US will be less likely to meet their financial commitments under the Paris Climate Agreement. Increased greenhouse gas emissions from the war will eventually exacerbate climate change and its impacts, requiring additional resources to be committed to fighting climate change, and repairing the damage it causes.”

According to the scientists, the study is meant to draw attention to the climate impacts of war and militarism – an underappreciated aspect of the climate crisis.

“By no means do we seek to seek to divert attention away from the human suffering the war has caused, especially for millions living in fear of losing their lives in Gaza due to Israeli bombardment or those still being held hostage by Hamas- we echo calls from around the world for a durable ceasefire. But this exercise attempts to offer some glimpses of the wider environmental and climate effects of the conflict- effects that are not separable from the wider humanitarian costs of war,” they said.

By Emmanuel K Dogbevi

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