More than 140 million people in West Africa live in extreme poverty

Analysis by economists show that the situation of poverty in West Africa is being worsened by insecurity and instability, leading to the spiralling of food insecurity pushing more than 140 million people into extreme poverty.

In a presentation at the second joint Intergovernmental Committee of Senior Officials and Experts (ICSOE) for North and West Africa in Accra, economists at the ECA, Subregional Office for West Africa, indicated that according to projections for 2023, an estimated 32.47 per cent of the population in West Africa is living on less than $2.15 a day, and this amounts to 141.32 million of people living in extreme poverty.

The situation is therefore, making the elimination of extreme poverty in all its forms in West Africa by 2030 a challenge, considering the SDG 1.1.

West Africa like most regions of the world is grappling with multiple crises such as the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, climate change and a debt crisis.

Additionally, insecurity is increasing in the region, with terrorist attacks on military and civilian targets in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, and since 2020, there have been six military coups in the region.

The economists also pointed out that from June 2023 nearly 48 million people became at risk from the food and nutrition crisis in the Sahel and West Africa during the lean season.

“Due to the insecurity, an estimated three million people in Burkina Faso are suffering from hunger,” they said.

There are also spiralling humanitarian crisis resulting from the insecurity as a result of which there is an increasing number of internally displaced people, loss of jobs and uncertainties and lack of investments.

The economists further noted that global economic growth has slowed to 3.5 per cent in 2022 and is expected to slow by a further 0.5 percentage points in both 2023 and 2024, due to rising food and essential fuel prices. In Africa, economic growth resumed to 4.2 per cent in 2021 before slowing down to 3.6 per cent in 2022, while the average inflation stood at two digits level since 2016 and has risen sharply to 18.4 per cent in 2021 before declining to 16.8 per cent in 2022 and 13.4 per cent in 2023.

“Inflation should continue to fall, averaging 10.3 per cent in 2024,” they noted.

Citing World Bank data, they said food and fertilizers prices have both reached their highest level in June 2022, which stood at $151.50 and $252.9, respectively. Food price increased by 56 per cent between December 2015 and July 2023.

They said during the same period, the fertilizers price index  increased from $96.25 in December 2015 to $145.65 in July 2023, suggesting an increase of 51 per cent.

In West Africa however, GDP growth rate stood at 4.5 per cent in 2022 and is expected to slightly increase to 4.8 per cent in 2023 and to reach 6.1 per cent in 2024.

The region’s average inflation rate is expected to slightly decline to 11.0 per cent in 2023 and to decline to a single digit level at 7.1 per cent in 2024.

In the

West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) member states, inflation is expected to reach 4.7 per cent average in 2023 against 7.2 per cent average in 2022, above the community convergence rate of 3.0 per cent.

The economists further noted that there is a change in the production structure in West Africa which indicates a movement from agriculture and manufacturing to services. As a result, the employment by economic activity has been the shift of labour from agriculture to the tertiary sector which comprised mainly urban informal service economy.

That then meant, agricultural production remains insufficient to respond to the increasing challenge of food insecurity in the region, they argued.

Among other things, the economists indicated that the current account of the West African region has worsened from -1.7 per cent of GDP in 2021 to -7.0 per cent of GDP in 2022.

“All the countries of the region have experienced a current account deficit in 2022,” they added.

However, four countries; The Gambia, Liberia, Niger, and Senegal, experienced current account deficits above 10 per cent of GDP in 2022.       

The analysis also showed that the average estimate share of youth (between 15 and 24 years) not in employment, education, or training in West Africa in 2022 is 29 per cent, ranging from 14.2 per cent in Liberia to 41.3 per cent Burkina Faso. 14 out of 15 countries have unemployment rate among the youth higher than for the general population.

They therefore urged governments in the region to take measures to address the issues, if they must turn the tide for economic growth and to reduce poverty.

They should leverage the opportunity presented by the African Continental Free Trade Area to economic diversification and industrialization; investment in renewable energy given the region’s resource endowment; work harder on a debt sustainability policy; increase investment in health, education and job creation, given the potential to harness demographic dividend; as well as evolve appropriate and well targeted social protection mechanisms to face extreme poverty.

They also called on governments to address the root causes of structural challenges, taking into account the close link between stability, governance and development; and bridge the gender gap by providing opportunities for women, which promotes economic growth, economic equality and helps to fight poverty.

The three-day conference is on the theme: “Investing in the energy transition, food security and regional value chains for sustainable development in North and West Africa.”

By Emmanuel K Dogbevi
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